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UD Logroñés II vs Calasancio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Calasancio
Calasancio
1/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

UD Logroñés II80%
×Draw13%
Calasancio7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
2.70
Calasancio
0.64

UD Logroñés II creates 322% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 29 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
Calasancio
0.66

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
Calasancio
2.31

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
Calasancio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Calasancio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
93%
UD Logroñés II or Calasancio
87%
Draw or Calasancio
20%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
59%
Calasancio wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
93%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
75%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
50%
Calasancio 1+ goals
47%
Calasancio 2+ goals
14%
Calasancio 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
92%
Calasancio (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Calasancio away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Calasancio defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.70

Calasancio attack 0.66 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
80%
level
13%
Calasancio scores more
7%

UD Logroñés II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés II 0 – 0 Calasancio

UD Logroñés II and Calasancio drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.