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Calasancio vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
CANC
00:00
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio17%
×Draw23%
UD Logroñés II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
0.82
UD Logroñés II
1.77

UD Logroñés II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
40%
Calasancio or UD Logroñés II
77%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
83%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
5%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
56%
Calasancio 2+ goals
20%
Calasancio 3+ goals
5%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
83%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
53%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
22%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Calasancio scores more
17%
level
23%
UD Logroñés II scores more
60%

UD Logroñés II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Calasancio host UD Logroñés II

March 15, 2020: Calasancio take on UD Logroñés II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Calasancio host UD Logroñés II at Estadio La Estrella.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.