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UD Logroñés II vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alfaro
Alfaro
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 2 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

UD Logroñés II58%
×Draw21%
Alfaro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
2.11
Alfaro
1.21

UD Logroñés II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 59 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
79%
UD Logroñés II or Alfaro
79%
Draw or Alfaro
42%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
35%
Alfaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
88%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
62%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
35%
Alfaro 1+ goals
70%
Alfaro 2+ goals
34%
Alfaro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
73%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.11

Alfaro attack 1.80 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
58%
level
21%
Alfaro scores more
21%

UD Logroñés II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés II 2 – 2 Alfaro

UD Logroñés II and Alfaro drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 2 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.