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Alfaro vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Alfaro
Alfaro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio La Molineta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alfaro43%
×Draw25%
UD Logroñés II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfaro
1.55
UD Logroñés II
1.31

Alfaro creates 18% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 77 away

creates per match

Alfaro
2.22
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

Alfaro
1.07
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

Alfaro+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfaro ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Alfaro or draw
68%
Alfaro or UD Logroñés II
75%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
57%

Winning margin

Alfaro wins by 2+
21%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Alfaro 1+ goals
79%
Alfaro 2+ goals
46%
Alfaro 3+ goals
20%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
73%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
38%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alfaro (draw refunded)
57%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfaro at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfaro attack 2.22 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Alfaro defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alfaro scores more
43%
level
25%
UD Logroñés II scores more
32%

Alfaro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alfaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Alfaro 1–0 UD Logroñés II

Alfaro beat UD Logroñés II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Molineta in Alfaro.