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UD Caravaca vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

UD Caravaca50%
×Draw26%
SFC Minerva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.49
SFC Minerva
0.94

UD Caravaca creates 59% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 63 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
76%
UD Caravaca or SFC Minerva
74%
Draw or SFC Minerva
50%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
25%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
77%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
44%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
19%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
61%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
24%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
68%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
50%
level
26%
SFC Minerva scores more
24%

UD Caravaca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs SFC Minerva

UD Caravaca beat SFC Minerva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.