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SFC Minerva vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Campo Municipal El Secante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SFC Minerva43%
×Draw27%
UD Caravaca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFC Minerva
1.40
UD Caravaca
1.12

SFC Minerva creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 83 away

creates per match

SFC Minerva
1.22
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

SFC Minerva
1.08
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

SFC Minerva+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFC Minerva ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SFC Minerva or draw
70%
SFC Minerva or UD Caravaca
73%
Draw or UD Caravaca
57%

Winning margin

SFC Minerva wins by 2+
21%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SFC Minerva 1+ goals
75%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
41%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
17%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
67%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
31%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
59%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFC Minerva at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFC Minerva attack 1.22 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + SFC Minerva defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SFC Minerva scores more
43%
level
27%
UD Caravaca scores more
30%

SFC Minerva at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SFC Minerva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SFC Minerva 1 – 0 UD Caravaca

SFC Minerva beat UD Caravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Secante in Alumbres.