UD Caravaca 2–2 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

UD Caravaca

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Murcia II

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

UD Caravaca40%

×Draw28%

Real Murcia II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD CaravacaExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

UD Caravaca

1.23

Real Murcia II

1.04

UD Caravaca creates 18% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

1.31

creates per match

1.24

0.84

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

UD Caravaca

1.31

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

UD Caravaca

0.84

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw

69%

UD Caravaca or Real Murcia II

72%

Draw or Real Murcia II

60%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

18%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

71%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

35%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

13%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

65%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

28%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

57%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

UD Caravaca scores more

40%

level

28%

Real Murcia II scores more

31%

UD Caravaca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Real Murcia II

UD Caravaca and Real Murcia II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.

UD Caravaca vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Real Murcia II