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Real Murcia II vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio Campus Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Real Murcia II53%
×Draw24%
UD Caravaca23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Murcia II
1.73
UD Caravaca
1.06

Real Murcia II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Murcia II
1.89
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Real Murcia II
0.97
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Real Murcia II+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Murcia II ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Murcia II or draw
77%
Real Murcia II or UD Caravaca
76%
Draw or UD Caravaca
47%

Winning margin

Real Murcia II wins by 2+
29%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Murcia II 1+ goals
82%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
52%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
25%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
65%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
29%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
70%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Murcia II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 113 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Murcia II attack 1.89 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Real Murcia II defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Murcia II scores more
53%
level
24%
UD Caravaca scores more
23%

Real Murcia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Murcia II vs UD Caravaca

Real Murcia II beat UD Caravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campus Universitario in Murcia.