UD Caravaca 3–1 Plus Ultra: Result & Stats

UD Caravaca

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Plus Ultra

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

UD Caravaca64%

×Draw21%

Plus Ultra15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD CaravacaExpected goals in this matchPlus Ultra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.81

UD Caravaca

1.94

Plus Ultra

0.81

UD Caravaca creates 140% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 63 away

1.31

creates per match

0.79

0.84

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

UD Caravaca

1.31

Plus Ultra

0.79

allows per match

UD Caravaca

0.84

Plus Ultra

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Plus Ultra →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw

85%

UD Caravaca or Plus Ultra

79%

Draw or Plus Ultra

36%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

39%

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

86%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

58%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

30%

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

56%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

19%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

81%

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.94

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

UD Caravaca scores more

64%

level

21%

Plus Ultra scores more

15%

UD Caravaca at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff