Plus Ultra 1–2 UD Caravaca: Result & Stats

Plus Ultra

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

UD Caravaca

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Plus Ultra32%

×Draw26%

UD Caravaca43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plus UltraExpected goals in this matchUD Caravaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.48

Plus Ultra

1.23

UD Caravaca

1.48

UD Caravaca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 83 away

0.89

creates per match

1.16

1.81

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Plus Ultra

0.89

UD Caravaca

1.16

allows per match

Plus Ultra

1.81

UD Caravaca

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plus Ultra ↓

UD Caravaca →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plus Ultra or draw

57%

Plus Ultra or UD Caravaca

74%

Draw or UD Caravaca

68%

Winning margin

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

13%

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

71%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

35%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

13%

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

77%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

43%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

42%

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plus Ultra at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plus Ultra attack 0.89 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Plus Ultra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Plus Ultra scores more

32%

level

26%

UD Caravaca scores more

43%

UD Caravaca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs UD Caravaca

UD Caravaca beat Plus Ultra 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Llano de Brujas in Llano de Brujas.

Plus Ultra vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Plus Ultra vs UD Caravaca