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UD Caravaca vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

UD Caravaca47%
×Draw27%
Cartagena FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.42
Cartagena FC
0.97

UD Caravaca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 44 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
74%
UD Caravaca or Cartagena FC
73%
Draw or Cartagena FC
53%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
23%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
76%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
41%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
17%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
62%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
25%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
65%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
47%
level
27%
Cartagena FC scores more
26%

UD Caravaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Caravaca vs Cartagena FC

Cartagena FC beat UD Caravaca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.