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Cartagena FC vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC38%
×Draw26%
UD Caravaca36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.38
UD Caravaca
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
UD Caravaca
1.16

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
UD Caravaca
1.57

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

UD Caravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
64%
Cartagena FC or UD Caravaca
74%
Draw or UD Caravaca
62%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
17%
UD Caravaca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
16%
UD Caravaca 1+ goals
74%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
39%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
51%
UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
38%
level
26%
UD Caravaca scores more
36%

Cartagena FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC 0 – 0 UD Caravaca

Cartagena FC and UD Caravaca drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.