UD Caravaca 1–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

UD Caravaca

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Tangu Gastão 74'

4/3/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UD Caravaca50%

×Draw28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD CaravacaExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.84

UD Caravaca

1.38

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.84

UD Caravaca creates 64% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 78 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

UD Caravaca

1.31

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

UD Caravaca

0.84

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw

77%

UD Caravaca or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

72%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

50%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

24%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

75%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

40%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

57%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

68%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

UD Caravaca scores more

50%

level

28%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

23%

UD Caravaca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Alejandro Molina← Miguel

48'

Hamza Agnaou← M. di Menno

58'

D. Denot← A. Lugula

61'

Alejandro Pérez← Iván Pérez

73'

Alberto Robles← Rubén Montoya

73'

Antonio Escribano← Javier Lopez

74'

Tangu Gastão

80'

Matías← Mario

88'

Trucha← Samuel Martínez

88'

CAP

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

48'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼M. di Menno

58'▲D. Denot←▼A. Lugula

73'▲Alberto Robles←▼Rubén Montoya

73'▲Antonio Escribano←▼Javier Lopez

UD Caravaca substitutes

AgnaouDenotRoblesEscribano

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

46'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Miguel

61'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Iván Pérez

80'▲Matías←▼Mario

88'▲Trucha←▼Samuel Martínez

88'▲Jaime←▼Javi Muñoz

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

MolinaPérezMatíasTruchaJaime

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 1–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

UD Caravaca beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 3, 2022.

Goals: Tangu Gastão (74').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.

UD Caravaca vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 1–0 CAP Ciudad de Murcia