CAP Ciudad de Murcia 0–1 UD Caravaca

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

UD Caravaca

Hamza Agnaou 33'

9/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Estadio José Barnés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia41%

×Draw28%

UD Caravaca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAP Ciudad de MurciaExpected goals in this matchUD Caravaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.30

UD Caravaca

1.10

CAP Ciudad de Murcia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 83 away

1.03

creates per match

1.16

1.04

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.03

UD Caravaca

1.16

allows per match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.04

UD Caravaca

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP Ciudad de Murcia ↓

UD Caravaca →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or draw

69%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia or UD Caravaca

72%

Draw or UD Caravaca

59%

Winning margin

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

19%

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

73%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

37%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

14%

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

67%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

30%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

57%

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 1.03 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.30

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

41%

level

28%

UD Caravaca scores more

31%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CAP Ciudad de Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Hamza Agnaou

45+3'

Pedro← José Rivas

56'

Juanjo← Adrián de la Cruz

56'

A. Khalok← Jaime

56'

Javi Bolo← Piqueras

62'

Alejandro Molina← Jesús Ros

66'

A. Lugula← Hamza Agnaou

69'

Asensio Miñarro← Fran Martínez

69'

Francisco Escobar← Diego Jiménez

CAP

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Francisco Lorca

45+3'▲Pedro←▼José Rivas

62'▲Alejandro Molina←▼Jesús Ros

69'▲Asensio Miñarro←▼Fran Martínez

69'▲Francisco Escobar←▼Diego Jiménez

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PedroMolinaMiñarroEscobar

Manager: R. Despotović

56'▲Juanjo←▼Adrián de la Cruz

56'▲A. Khalok←▼Jaime

56'▲Javi Bolo←▼Piqueras

66'▲A. Lugula←▼Hamza Agnaou

UD Caravaca substitutes

JuanjoKhalokBoloLugula

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs UD Caravaca

UD Caravaca beat CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 11, 2022.

Goals: Hamza Agnaou (33').

The match was played at Estadio José Barnés in Murcia.

CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs UD Caravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CAP Ciudad de Murcia vs UD Caravaca