Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UCV vs Rosario Central — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

UCV
UCV
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
E. Copetti 90'
A. Di Maria 53' (pen)
I. Ovando 35'
4/29/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UCV45%
×Draw26%
Rosario Central29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.47
Rosario Central
1.13

UCV creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

UCV
1.50
Rosario Central
1.00

allows per match

UCV
1.25
Rosario Central
1.44

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Rosario Central+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UCV or draw
71%
UCV or Rosario Central
74%
Draw or Rosario Central
55%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
22%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
77%
UCV 2+ goals
43%
UCV 3+ goals
18%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
68%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
31%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
61%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.50 + Rosario Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rosario Central attack 1.00 + UCV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UCV scores more
45%
level
26%
Rosario Central scores more
29%

UCV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

46
I. OvandoRosario CentralRosario Central · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
A. Di Maria
20'
F. Sole
35'
I. Ovando↳ J. Campaz
37'
F. Ibarra
46'
S. Sosa← A. Granko
46'
P. Fernandez← J. Fernandez
52'
G. Schiavone
53'
A. Di MariaPenalty
56'
D. Sasso
61'
Y. Cumana
65'
E. Gimenez← A. Di Maria
80'
A. Veliz
80'
E. Copetti← A. Veliz
80'
F. Navarro← F. Ibarra
84'
Y. Murillo← J. Zapata
84'
V. Rodriguez← A. Gonzalez
87'
C. Quintana← J. Campaz
90'
E. Copetti↳ P. Fernandez

Possession

42%UCV

Shots

13UCV

Pass accuracy

48%UCV

Statistics

UCVRosario
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots11
1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.94
3Corners6
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots11
3On Target4
7Off Target5
3Blocked2
7Inside Box10
6Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
323Total Passes462
241Accurate Passes368
75%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.43Goals Prevented0.43
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Match Recap: UCV vs Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat UCV 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 29, 2026.

Goals: I. Ovando (35'), A. Di Maria (53' pen), E. Copetti (90').

Rosario Central controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.