Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosario Central vs UCV — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UCV
UCV
M. Ruben 88'
A. Di Maria 71'
V. Pizarro 39'
A. Veliz 22'
5/19/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rosario Central66%
×Draw20%
UCV13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
2.03
UCV
0.78

Rosario Central creates 160% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.56
UCV
1.00

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.56
UCV
2.50

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
87%
Rosario Central or UCV
80%
Draw or UCV
34%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
41%
UCV wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
87%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
60%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
33%
UCV 1+ goals
54%
UCV 2+ goals
18%
UCV 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
83%
UCV (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

UCV away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.56 + UCV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.03

UCV attack 1.00 + Rosario Central defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rosario Central scores more
66%
level
20%
UCV scores more
13%

Rosario Central at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. Di MariaRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.9

Match Events

21'
Kendrys Silva
22'
A. Veliz
33'
Jovanny BolívarGoal cancelled
35'
Jovanny Bolívar
39'
V. Pizarro↳ J. Fernandez
46'
E. Gimenez← E. Copetti
46'
I. Ovando← F. Mallo Blanco
56'
D. De Sousa← V. Rodriguez
57'
Adrián Martínez
63'
G. Cantizano← J. Fernandez
65'
R. Ramirez← L. Martinez
71'
A. Di Maria↳ G. Cantizano
72'
M. Ruben← A. Veliz
76'
K. Mendoza← A. Gonzalez
76'
M. Ruiz←
77'
J. Campaz← A. Di Maria
85'
Giovanni Cantizano
88'
M. Ruben↳ G. Cantizano
90+2'
Agustín Sández
90+1'
Juan Camilo ZapataGoal cancelled

Possession

64%Rosario

Shots

16Rosario

Pass accuracy

53%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioUCV
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots8
2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.28
4Corners0
16Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots8
6On Target1
9Off Target5
1Blocked2
10Inside Box2
6Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
596Total Passes329
540Accurate Passes262
91%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
-1.59Goals Prevented-1.59
Discipline
16Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs UCV

Rosario Central beat UCV 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Veliz (22'), V. Pizarro (39'), A. Di Maria (71'), M. Ruben (88').

Rosario Central controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.