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UCV vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
2 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
11/23/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 7Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

UCV48%
×Draw27%
Llaneros de Guanare25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.40
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

UCV creates 51% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 43 away

creates per match

UCV
1.27
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

UCV
0.93
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCV or draw
75%
UCV or Llaneros de Guanare
73%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
52%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
23%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
75%
UCV 2+ goals
41%
UCV 3+ goals
17%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
61%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
24%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
66%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UCV scores more
48%
level
27%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
25%

UCV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs Llaneros de Guanare

UCV beat Llaneros de Guanare 2-0 in Segunda División on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.