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Llaneros de Guanare vs UCV — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 1
UCV
UCV
11/10/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw26%
UCV34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.35
UCV
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
UCV
1.03

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
UCV
1.37

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
66%
Llaneros de Guanare or UCV
74%
Draw or UCV
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
UCV wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
39%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
UCV 1+ goals
71%
UCV 2+ goals
36%
UCV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
53%
UCV (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

UCV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + UCV defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

UCV attack 1.03 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
26%
UCV scores more
34%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Llaneros de Guanare 1–1 UCV

Llaneros de Guanare and UCV drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.