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UCV vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 0
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
4/4/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

UCV48%
×Draw29%
Libertador FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.30
Libertador FC
0.83

UCV creates 57% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 45 away

creates per match

UCV
1.27
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

UCV
0.93
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UCV or draw
76%
UCV or Libertador FC
71%
Draw or Libertador FC
52%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
22%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
73%
UCV 2+ goals
37%
UCV 3+ goals
14%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
56%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
20%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
67%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UCV scores more
48%
level
29%
Libertador FC scores more
24%

UCV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV vs Libertador FC

UCV beat Libertador FC 1-0 in Segunda División on April 4, 2018.

The match was played at Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas).