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Libertador FC vs UCV — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
1 – 2
UCV
UCV
5/30/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 20Estadio Fray Luis (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Libertador FC42%
×Draw27%
UCV31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.33
UCV
1.11

Libertador FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 38 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
UCV
1.03

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
UCV
1.37

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
69%
Libertador FC or UCV
73%
Draw or UCV
58%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
19%
UCV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
74%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
38%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
15%
UCV 1+ goals
67%
UCV 2+ goals
30%
UCV 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
57%
UCV (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

UCV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + UCV defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

UCV attack 1.03 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Libertador FC scores more
42%
level
27%
UCV scores more
31%

Libertador FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertador FC vs UCV

UCV beat Libertador FC 2-1 in Segunda División on May 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Fray Luis (Caracas).