UCV 3–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC: Result & Stats

UCV

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Estudiantes de Merida FC

9/14/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV45%

×Draw26%

Estudiantes de Merida FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCVExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Merida FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.12

UCV

1.48

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.12

UCV creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 138 away

1.40

creates per match

1.19

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

UCV

1.40

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.19

allows per match

UCV

1.05

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UCV or draw

71%

UCV or Estudiantes de Merida FC

74%

Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC

55%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+

22%

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals

77%

UCV 2+ goals

43%

UCV 3+ goals

19%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

67%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

31%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)

61%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UCV scores more

45%

level

26%

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

29%

UCV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff