Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 UCV: Result & Stats

Estudiantes de Merida FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCV

3/19/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC46%

×Draw26%

UCV28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes de Merida FCExpected goals in this matchUCV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.07

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.46

UCV

1.07

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 84 away

1.51

creates per match

1.06

1.08

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.51

UCV

1.06

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.08

UCV

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

UCV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw

72%

Estudiantes de Merida FC or UCV

74%

Draw or UCV

54%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

23%

UCV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

77%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

43%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

18%

UCV 1+ goals

66%

UCV 2+ goals

29%

UCV 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

62%

UCV (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

UCV away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + UCV defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

UCV attack 1.06 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

46%

level

26%

UCV scores more

28%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff