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UCV vs Ciudad Vinotinto — Segunda División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
2 – 1
Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
9/10/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

UCV52%
×Draw28%
Ciudad Vinotinto20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.34
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.72

UCV creates 86% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 12 away

creates per match

UCV
1.27
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.50

allows per match

UCV
0.93
Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Ciudad Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UCV or draw
80%
UCV or Ciudad Vinotinto
72%
Draw or Ciudad Vinotinto
48%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
25%
Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
74%
UCV 2+ goals
39%
UCV 3+ goals
15%
Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
51%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
16%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
72%
Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Ciudad Vinotinto away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.27 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.50 + UCV defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UCV scores more
52%
level
28%
Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
20%

UCV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: UCV 2–1 Ciudad Vinotinto

UCV beat Ciudad Vinotinto 2-1 in Segunda División on September 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas).