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Ciudad Vinotinto vs UCV — Segunda División 2018

Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
FT
0 – 1
UCV
UCV
9/28/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ciudad Vinotinto33%
×Draw28%
UCV39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.10
UCV
1.23

UCV creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
0.83
UCV
1.03

allows per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42
UCV
1.37

finishing

Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Vinotinto ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad Vinotinto or draw
61%
Ciudad Vinotinto or UCV
72%
Draw or UCV
67%

Winning margin

Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
13%
UCV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
67%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
30%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
10%
UCV 1+ goals
71%
UCV 2+ goals
35%
UCV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
46%
UCV (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Vinotinto at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

UCV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.83 + UCV defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

UCV attack 1.03 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
33%
level
28%
UCV scores more
39%

UCV at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Ciudad Vinotinto 0–1 UCV

UCV beat Ciudad Vinotinto 1-0 in Segunda División on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).