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UCV vs Carabobo FC — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
11/30/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · FinalEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV41%
×Draw28%
Carabobo FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.26
Carabobo FC
1.06

UCV creates 19% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 138 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
Carabobo FC
1.08

allows per match

UCV
1.05
Carabobo FC
1.12

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Carabobo FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UCV or draw
69%
UCV or Carabobo FC
72%
Draw or Carabobo FC
59%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
18%
Carabobo FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
72%
UCV 2+ goals
36%
UCV 3+ goals
13%
Carabobo FC 1+ goals
65%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
29%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
57%
Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Carabobo FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.26

Carabobo FC attack 1.08 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UCV scores more
41%
level
28%
Carabobo FC scores more
31%

UCV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UCV 1–1 Carabobo FC

UCV and Carabobo FC drew 1-1 in Primera División on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.