UCV 0–0 Carabobo FC: Result & Stats

UCV

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carabobo FC

10/1/2025

Copa Venezuela · FinalEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

UCV42%

×Draw36%

Carabobo FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCVExpected goals in this matchCarabobo FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.55

UCV

0.91

Carabobo FC

0.55

UCV creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.14

creates per match

0.67

0.43

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

UCV

1.14

Carabobo FC

0.67

allows per match

UCV

0.43

Carabobo FC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV+0.00on par

Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Carabobo FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

43%57%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

UCV or draw

79%

UCV or Carabobo FC

64%

Draw or Carabobo FC

58%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+

16%

Carabobo FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals

60%

UCV 2+ goals

23%

UCV 3+ goals

6%

Carabobo FC 1+ goals

42%

Carabobo FC 2+ goals

11%

Carabobo FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)

67%

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Carabobo FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.14 + Carabobo FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Carabobo FC attack 0.67 + UCV defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UCV scores more

42%

level

36%

Carabobo FC scores more

21%

UCV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff