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UCV vs Angostura FC — Primera División 2018

UCV
UCV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
7/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UCV49%
×Draw25%
Angostura FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV
1.56
Angostura FC
1.06

UCV creates 47% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

creates per match

UCV
1.40
Angostura FC
1.07

allows per match

UCV
1.05
Angostura FC
1.73

finishing

UCV+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UCV or draw
74%
UCV or Angostura FC
75%
Draw or Angostura FC
51%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+
25%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals
79%
UCV 2+ goals
46%
UCV 3+ goals
21%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
29%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)
65%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Angostura FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Angostura FC attack 1.07 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UCV scores more
49%
level
25%
Angostura FC scores more
26%

UCV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UCV 1–0 Angostura FC

UCV beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Primera División on July 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.