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Angostura FC vs UCV — Segunda División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
0 – 1
UCV
UCV
11/26/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 8Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Angostura FC48%
×Draw27%
UCV25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.44
UCV
0.97

Angostura FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.50
UCV
1.03

allows per match

Angostura FC
0.91
UCV
1.37

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
75%
Angostura FC or UCV
73%
Draw or UCV
52%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
24%
UCV wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
76%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
42%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
18%
UCV 1+ goals
62%
UCV 2+ goals
25%
UCV 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
65%
UCV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 74 matches

UCV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.50 + UCV defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

UCV attack 1.03 + Angostura FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Angostura FC scores more
48%
level
27%
UCV scores more
25%

Angostura FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Angostura FC 0–1 UCV

UCV beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Segunda División on November 26, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.