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UCV Moquegua vs Deportivo Municipal — Segunda División 2018

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
4/14/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UCV Moquegua47%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Municipal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
1.59
Deportivo Municipal
1.17

UCV Moquegua creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.62
Deportivo Municipal
1.33

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.00
Deportivo Municipal
1.56

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
72%
UCV Moquegua or Deportivo Municipal
75%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
53%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
80%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
47%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.62 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.33 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
47%
level
25%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
28%

UCV Moquegua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCV Moquegua vs Deportivo Municipal

UCV Moquegua beat Deportivo Municipal 2-0 in Segunda División on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.