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Deportivo Municipal vs UCV Moquegua — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
6/10/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal34%
×Draw28%
UCV Moquegua38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.14
UCV Moquegua
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.00
UCV Moquegua
1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.22
UCV Moquegua
1.28

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

UCV Moquegua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
62%
Deportivo Municipal or UCV Moquegua
72%
Draw or UCV Moquegua
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
14%
UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
11%
UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
70%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
34%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
48%
UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
34%
level
28%
UCV Moquegua scores more
38%

UCV Moquegua at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Municipal 0–0 UCV Moquegua

Deportivo Municipal and UCV Moquegua drew 0-0 in Segunda División on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.