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UCV Moquegua vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
9/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Relegation Round - 5Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

UCV Moquegua64%
×Draw20%
Carlos Stein17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCV Moquegua
2.21
Carlos Stein
1.04

UCV Moquegua creates 113% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

creates per match

UCV Moquegua
1.62
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

UCV Moquegua
1.00
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV Moquegua ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

UCV Moquegua or draw
83%
UCV Moquegua or Carlos Stein
80%
Draw or Carlos Stein
36%

Winning margin

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
40%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
89%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
65%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
38%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
65%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
79%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV Moquegua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV Moquegua attack 1.62 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

UCV Moquegua scores more
64%
level
20%
Carlos Stein scores more
17%

UCV Moquegua at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: UCV Moquegua 6–1 Carlos Stein

UCV Moquegua beat Carlos Stein 6-1 in Segunda División on September 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 25 de Noviembre in Moquegua.