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Carlos Stein vs UCV Moquegua — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
8/22/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Relegation Round - 3Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Carlos Stein27%
×Draw24%
UCV Moquegua49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.20
UCV Moquegua
1.72

UCV Moquegua creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
UCV Moquegua
1.20

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
UCV Moquegua
1.28

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

UCV Moquegua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
51%
Carlos Stein or UCV Moquegua
76%
Draw or UCV Moquegua
73%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
11%
UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
70%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
34%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
12%
UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
82%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
51%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
35%
UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
27%
level
24%
UCV Moquegua scores more
49%

UCV Moquegua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs UCV Moquegua

UCV Moquegua beat Carlos Stein 4-0 in Segunda División on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.