UCSA 4–0 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

UCSA

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Pharm

9/2/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 5Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

UCSA78%

×Draw15%

Real Pharm8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCSAExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.67

UCSA

2.54

Real Pharm

0.67

UCSA creates 279% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

2.62

creates per match

0.80

0.54

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

UCSA

2.62

Real Pharm

0.80

allows per match

UCSA

0.54

Real Pharm

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCSA+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCSA ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

UCSA or draw

92%

UCSA or Real Pharm

85%

Draw or Real Pharm

22%

Winning margin

UCSA wins by 2+

55%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

UCSA 1+ goals

92%

UCSA 2+ goals

72%

UCSA 3+ goals

46%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

49%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

15%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

UCSA (draw refunded)

91%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCSA at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCSA attack 2.62 + Real Pharm defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.54

Real Pharm attack 0.80 + UCSA defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

UCSA scores more

78%

level

15%

Real Pharm scores more

8%

UCSA at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "UCSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff