Real Pharm 1–1 UCSA: Result & Stats

Real Pharm

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCSA

3/24/2024

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 20Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Pharm9%

×Draw18%

UCSA73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real PharmExpected goals in this matchUCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.62

2.17

Real Pharm

0.62

UCSA

2.17

UCSA creates 250% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

0.78

creates per match

2.15

2.20

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Real Pharm

0.78

UCSA

2.15

allows per match

Real Pharm

2.20

UCSA

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Pharm+0.00on par

UCSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Pharm ↓

UCSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–215%

0–311%

0–46%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Pharm or draw

27%

Real Pharm or UCSA

82%

Draw or UCSA

91%

Winning margin

Real Pharm wins by 2+

2%

UCSA wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Real Pharm 1+ goals

46%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

13%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

3%

UCSA 1+ goals

89%

UCSA 2+ goals

64%

UCSA 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

11%

UCSA (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Pharm at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

UCSA away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Pharm attack 0.78 + UCSA defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.62

UCSA attack 2.15 + Real Pharm defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Real Pharm scores more

9%

level

18%

UCSA scores more

73%

UCSA at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "UCSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff