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UCD vs Dundalk — First Division 2019

UCD
UCD
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dundalk
Dundalk
4/4/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 8UCD Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UCD30%
×Draw26%
Dundalk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCD
1.14
Dundalk
1.41

Dundalk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

creates per match

UCD
1.56
Dundalk
1.78

allows per match

UCD
1.04
Dundalk
0.72

finishing

UCD+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCD ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UCD or draw
57%
UCD or Dundalk
74%
Draw or Dundalk
70%

Winning margin

UCD wins by 2+
12%
Dundalk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

UCD 1+ goals
68%
UCD 2+ goals
32%
UCD 3+ goals
11%
Dundalk 1+ goals
76%
Dundalk 2+ goals
41%
Dundalk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

UCD (draw refunded)
41%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCD at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.04 · 72 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCD attack 1.56 + Dundalk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dundalk attack 1.78 + UCD defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UCD scores more
30%
level
26%
Dundalk scores more
43%

Dundalk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UCD 0 – 1 Dundalk

Dundalk beat UCD 1-0 in First Division on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at UCD Bowl in Dublin.