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Dundalk vs UCD — First Division 2019

Dundalk
Dundalk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UCD
UCD
9/26/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 33Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dundalk50%
×Draw23%
UCD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundalk
1.87
UCD
1.35

Dundalk creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dundalk
2.33
UCD
1.70

allows per match

Dundalk
1.00
UCD
1.41

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw
72%
Dundalk or UCD
77%
Draw or UCD
50%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+
28%
UCD wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals
85%
Dundalk 2+ goals
56%
Dundalk 3+ goals
29%
UCD 1+ goals
74%
UCD 2+ goals
39%
UCD 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)
64%
UCD (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

UCD away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.33 + UCD defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.87

UCD attack 1.70 + Dundalk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundalk scores more
50%
level
23%
UCD scores more
28%

Dundalk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundalk vs UCD

Dundalk beat UCD 3-2 in First Division on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.