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UCD vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

UCD
UCD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
5/30/2025First DivisionFirst Division · Round 17UCD Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

UCD53%
×Draw24%
Athlone Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCD
1.72
Athlone Town
1.04

UCD creates 65% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 119 away

creates per match

UCD
1.56
Athlone Town
1.04

allows per match

UCD
1.04
Athlone Town
1.88

finishing

UCD+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCD ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UCD or draw
77%
UCD or Athlone Town
76%
Draw or Athlone Town
47%

Winning margin

UCD wins by 2+
29%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UCD 1+ goals
82%
UCD 2+ goals
51%
UCD 3+ goals
25%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
65%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
28%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UCD (draw refunded)
70%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCD at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.04 · 72 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCD attack 1.56 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + UCD defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

UCD scores more
53%
level
24%
Athlone Town scores more
23%

UCD at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: UCD 2–0 Athlone Town

UCD beat Athlone Town 2-0 in First Division on May 30, 2025.

The match was played at UCD Bowl in Dublin.