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Athlone Town vs UCD — First Division 2019

Athlone Town
Athlone Town
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
UCD
UCD
4/3/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 8Athlone Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Athlone Town31%
×Draw24%
UCD45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.71

UCD creates 24% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 74 away

creates per match

Athlone Town
1.35
UCD
1.70

allows per match

Athlone Town
1.73
UCD
1.41

finishing

Athlone Town+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athlone Town ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Athlone Town or draw
55%
Athlone Town or UCD
76%
Draw or UCD
69%

Winning margin

Athlone Town wins by 2+
14%
UCD wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Athlone Town 1+ goals
75%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
40%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
16%
UCD 1+ goals
82%
UCD 2+ goals
51%
UCD 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Athlone Town (draw refunded)
41%
UCD (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athlone Town at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 120 matches

UCD away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athlone Town attack 1.35 + UCD defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

UCD attack 1.70 + Athlone Town defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Athlone Town scores more
31%
level
24%
UCD scores more
45%

UCD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UCD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athlone Town vs UCD

UCD beat Athlone Town 2-0 in First Division on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Athlone Town Stadium in Athlone.