UCC Youngsters 0–1 Elmina Sharks: Result & Stats

UCC Youngsters

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Elmina Sharks

11/23/2025

Division One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UCC Youngsters39%

×Draw29%

Elmina Sharks32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCC YoungstersExpected goals in this matchElmina Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.03

UCC Youngsters

1.17

Elmina Sharks

1.03

UCC Youngsters creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

UCC Youngsters

1.07

Elmina Sharks

0.67

allows per match

UCC Youngsters

1.40

Elmina Sharks

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCC Youngsters ↓

Elmina Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UCC Youngsters or draw

68%

UCC Youngsters or Elmina Sharks

71%

Draw or Elmina Sharks

61%

Winning margin

UCC Youngsters wins by 2+

16%

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UCC Youngsters 1+ goals

69%

UCC Youngsters 2+ goals

33%

UCC Youngsters 3+ goals

11%

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

64%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

28%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)

55%

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCC Youngsters at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCC Youngsters attack 1.07 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + UCC Youngsters defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UCC Youngsters scores more

39%

level

29%

Elmina Sharks scores more

32%

UCC Youngsters at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UCC Youngsters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff