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Elmina Sharks vs UCC Youngsters — Division One League 2025

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UCC Youngsters
UCC Youngsters
3/21/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks54%
×Draw24%
UCC Youngsters21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.70
UCC Youngsters
0.97

Elmina Sharks creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.33
UCC Youngsters
1.00

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
0.93
UCC Youngsters
2.07

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

UCC Youngsters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
79%
Elmina Sharks or UCC Youngsters
76%
Draw or UCC Youngsters
46%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
30%
UCC Youngsters wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
82%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
51%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
24%
UCC Youngsters 1+ goals
62%
UCC Youngsters 2+ goals
25%
UCC Youngsters 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
72%
UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

UCC Youngsters away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + UCC Youngsters defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.70

UCC Youngsters attack 1.00 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
54%
level
24%
UCC Youngsters scores more
21%

Elmina Sharks at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Elmina Sharks 2–1 UCC Youngsters

Elmina Sharks beat UCC Youngsters 2-1 in Division One League on March 21, 2026.