UCC Youngsters 3–0 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

UCC Youngsters

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ashanti Gold

4/5/2026

Division One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UCC Youngsters28%

×Draw29%

Ashanti Gold44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCC YoungstersExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.26

UCC Youngsters

0.94

Ashanti Gold

1.26

Ashanti Gold creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

1.13

1.40

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

UCC Youngsters

1.07

Ashanti Gold

1.13

allows per match

UCC Youngsters

1.40

Ashanti Gold

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCC Youngsters+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCC Youngsters ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UCC Youngsters or draw

56%

UCC Youngsters or Ashanti Gold

71%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

72%

Winning margin

UCC Youngsters wins by 2+

10%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

UCC Youngsters 1+ goals

61%

UCC Youngsters 2+ goals

24%

UCC Youngsters 3+ goals

7%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

72%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

36%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

UCC Youngsters (draw refunded)

39%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCC Youngsters at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCC Youngsters attack 1.07 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ashanti Gold attack 1.13 + UCC Youngsters defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UCC Youngsters scores more

28%

level

29%

Ashanti Gold scores more

44%

Ashanti Gold at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff