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UCAM Murcia II vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 28Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

UCAM Murcia II43%
×Draw28%
Racing Murcia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.29
Racing Murcia
1.01

UCAM Murcia II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
71%
UCAM Murcia II or Racing Murcia
72%
Draw or Racing Murcia
57%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
19%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
72%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
37%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
14%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
64%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
27%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
60%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
43%
level
28%
Racing Murcia scores more
29%

UCAM Murcia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UCAM Murcia II 2 – 0 Racing Murcia

UCAM Murcia II beat Racing Murcia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.