Racing Murcia 0–1 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Racing Murcia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Racing Murcia40%

×Draw28%

UCAM Murcia II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing MurciaExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.10

Racing Murcia

1.26

UCAM Murcia II

1.10

Racing Murcia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 110 away

1.39

creates per match

1.33

0.87

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Racing Murcia

1.39

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Racing Murcia

0.87

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Murcia ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Racing Murcia or draw

68%

Racing Murcia or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

60%

Winning margin

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

18%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

72%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

36%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

13%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

67%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

30%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

55%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Murcia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 62 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Murcia attack 1.39 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Racing Murcia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing Murcia scores more

40%

level

28%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

32%

Racing Murcia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Racing Murcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal Onofre Fernández Verdú in Las Torres de Cotillas.

Racing Murcia vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Murcia vs UCAM Murcia II