UCAM Murcia II 0–3 Mar Menor: Result & Stats

UCAM Murcia II

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Mar Menor

2/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

UCAM Murcia II33%

×Draw30%

Mar Menor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCAM Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchMar Menor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.08

UCAM Murcia II

1.00

Mar Menor

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

1.51

creates per match

1.27

0.90

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II

1.51

Mar Menor

1.27

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II

0.90

Mar Menor

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Mar Menor →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw

63%

UCAM Murcia II or Mar Menor

70%

Draw or Mar Menor

67%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

12%

Mar Menor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

63%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

26%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

66%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

29%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

47%

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more

33%

level

30%

Mar Menor scores more

37%

Mar Menor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs Mar Menor

Mar Menor beat UCAM Murcia II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.

UCAM Murcia II vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UCAM Murcia II vs Mar Menor