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Mar Menor vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
12/4/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor46%
×Draw27%
UCAM Murcia II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.42
UCAM Murcia II
1.02

Mar Menor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
73%
Mar Menor or UCAM Murcia II
73%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
54%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
22%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
76%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
41%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
17%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
64%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
27%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
63%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mar Menor scores more
46%
level
27%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
27%

Mar Menor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mar Menor vs UCAM Murcia II

Mar Menor beat UCAM Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.