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UCAM Murcia II vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

UCAM Murcia II55%
×Draw25%
Huércal Overa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.59
Huércal Overa
0.84

UCAM Murcia II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 47 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
80%
UCAM Murcia II or Huércal Overa
75%
Draw or Huércal Overa
45%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
29%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
80%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
47%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
21%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
57%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
21%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
74%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
55%
level
25%
Huércal Overa scores more
20%

UCAM Murcia II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UCAM Murcia II 1 – 1 Huércal Overa

UCAM Murcia II and Huércal Overa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.