Huércal Overa 3–2 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Huércal Overa

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UCAM Murcia II

1/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa33%

×Draw28%

UCAM Murcia II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huércal OveraExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Huércal Overa

1.09

UCAM Murcia II

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

1.04

creates per match

1.33

1.04

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw

62%

Huércal Overa or UCAM Murcia II

72%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

67%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

13%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

66%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

30%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

10%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

70%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

33%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

47%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huércal Overa scores more

33%

level

28%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

38%

UCAM Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 3–2 UCAM Murcia II

Huércal Overa beat UCAM Murcia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.

Huércal Overa vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 3–2 UCAM Murcia II