UCAM Murcia II 0–1 Archena Sport: Result & Stats

UCAM Murcia II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Archena Sport

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UCAM Murcia II47%

×Draw27%

Archena Sport26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCAM Murcia IIExpected goals in this matchArchena Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

UCAM Murcia II

1.40

Archena Sport

0.98

UCAM Murcia II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

1.51

creates per match

1.06

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II

1.51

Archena Sport

1.06

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II

0.90

Archena Sport

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Archena Sport →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw

74%

UCAM Murcia II or Archena Sport

73%

Draw or Archena Sport

53%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

22%

Archena Sport wins by 2+

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

75%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

41%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

17%

Archena Sport 1+ goals

62%

Archena Sport 2+ goals

26%

Archena Sport 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

64%

Archena Sport (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more

47%

level

27%

Archena Sport scores more

26%

UCAM Murcia II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff