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Archena Sport vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Archena Sport
Archena Sport
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
9/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 3Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Archena Sport36%
×Draw25%
UCAM Murcia II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Archena Sport
1.40
UCAM Murcia II
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Archena Sport
1.65
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Archena Sport
1.65
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Archena Sport+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Archena Sport ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Archena Sport or draw
60%
Archena Sport or UCAM Murcia II
75%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
64%

Winning margin

Archena Sport wins by 2+
16%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Archena Sport 1+ goals
75%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
41%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
17%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
77%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
44%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Archena Sport (draw refunded)
47%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Archena Sport at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Archena Sport attack 1.65 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Archena Sport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Archena Sport scores more
36%
level
25%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
40%

UCAM Murcia II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Archena Sport 0 – 0 UCAM Murcia II

Archena Sport and UCAM Murcia II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Municipal Andrés Abenza in Archena.