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UCAM Murcia II vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Algar
Algar
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio El Mayayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UCAM Murcia II60%
×Draw23%
Algar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UCAM Murcia II
1.73
Algar
0.78

UCAM Murcia II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

UCAM Murcia II
1.51
Algar
0.65

allows per match

UCAM Murcia II
0.90
Algar
1.94

finishing

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCAM Murcia II ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UCAM Murcia II or draw
83%
UCAM Murcia II or Algar
77%
Draw or Algar
40%

Winning margin

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
34%
Algar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
82%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
52%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
25%
Algar 1+ goals
54%
Algar 2+ goals
18%
Algar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
78%
Algar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCAM Murcia II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.51 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Algar attack 0.65 + UCAM Murcia II defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

UCAM Murcia II scores more
60%
level
23%
Algar scores more
17%

UCAM Murcia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UCAM Murcia II 3–1 Algar

UCAM Murcia II beat Algar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Mayayo in Sangonera la Verde.